IMF Raises Global Growth Forecast Amid Trade Tension Warnings
The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its global growth projection to 3.3% for 2024, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from its January estimate. The US economy shows particular resilience, with the 2026 forecast revised upward to 2.4% growth.
Trade tensions cast a shadow over the optimistic outlook. New tariffs announced by the TRUMP administration—10% initially, escalating to 25% by June—threaten to disrupt economic momentum. "Geopolitical risks continue to accumulate," warned IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noting the compounding nature of trade restrictions.
Artificial intelligence investment emerges as both driver and vulnerability. While massive AI spending currently bolsters growth, the IMF cautions against overconcentration in this sector. A correction in AI-related valuations could trigger significant market volatility, with potential spillover effects across technology and crypto markets.
